The strategy of the FLNKS was to forge

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When the planned ballot expired in 1998, the two parties negotiated a follow-up agreement, the Noumea Accord. This pushed back the date of an independence referendum from 15 to 20 years and launched a power-sharing deal under which pro and anti-independence politicians were to collaborate in collegiate government.

Under the Nouméa Accord, various executive powers were gradually transferred from Paris to Nouméa. The final decision on whether or not to transfer the remaining “sovereign powers” – including defense, foreign affairs and justice – hinged on the cycle of three referendums that took place in 2018-2021.

Although the decision to hold the third referendum was taken by the Territorial Assembly of New Caledonia, the French government unilaterally set the 12e Date of the December referendum. The Noumea Accord phone number library provides that only the support of a third of the 54 members of Congress was required for a final ballot to take place. In formal legal terms, Paris may have acted within its statutory powers in setting the date, but this resulted in a hasty timeline with the third referendum only taking place 14 months after the second.

Until recently, time seemed to be on the separatist side. The “no” fell from 56.7% in 2018 to 53.3% in 2020. By agreement, the right to vote was limited to those who arrived before 1994, much to the dismay of loyalist parties. More and more young Kanak voters have come of age, while in net terms around 2,000 New Caledonians leave the territory each year, mostly non-natives.

alliances with other communities, known as “victims of history”, including the colonists who were brought to the territory under French domination. This approach seemed to be paying off. In February, a party representing the descendants of migrants from the islands of Wallis and Futuna, or about 8.3% of the population, changed sides to support the election of the territory’s first Kanak president.

The abandonment of the 33-year-old path of seeking at least a partial consensus in the management of New Caledonian affairs is first and foremost a response to developments in metropolitan France. In 2022, Macron faces presidential and legislative elections with the main threat coming from right-wing parties that have close ties to loyalists in New Caledonia.